This week Andy Burnham made his first comments from the dispatch box as UK Prime Minister. And while he is no doubt enjoying this moment he has long dreamt of, the bond markets are providing something of a wakeup all.
On 3rd September long-term government borrowing costs hit an 18 year high. To a great extent this is due to the skyrocketing price of oil caused by the war in Iran, but some of the increase is likely attributable to concerns over Burnham’s potential spending plans. The fact that borrowing costs eased off a little following Burnham’s PMQs commitment to fiscal rectitude suggests this is the case.
The problem here is uncertainty. Until the UK government lays out its spending plans at the next budget, the markets are going to go up and down on the basis of supposition and guesswork.
In this case, there’s little the government can do apart from repeating ad infinitum their mantra of fiscal responsibility right up until budget day – that is unless they want to pre-announce any tax and spend plans.
However, applied more broadly, the government’s challenges prove a rule of thumb in reputation management: uncertainty is often bad for an organization’s reputation.

How does uncertainty hurt brands?
Recent history is full of cases where brands should have moved faster in communicating around an important issue.
The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) is a case in point. When the bank announced it needed to raise $2.25 billion to cover investment losses it failed to brief analysts and venture capitalists. For several crucial hours there was an information vacuum and the market was quick to respond, with VC firms instructing portfolio companies to withdraw their funds.
When a statement was finally issued, it was esoteric and jargon-heavy, providing little in the way of reassurance. As a result, $42 billion was pulled out of SVB in a single day, leading to the collapse of the bank within 48 hours.
The information delay in the Cambridge Analytica scandal is another case in point. When news broke that the data of 87 million Facebook users had been harvested without consent, it took five full days before Facebook’s leadership team responded.
During that time, the media ran with the story and #DeleteFacebook trended globally, wiping over $50 billion from Facebook’s market capitalization within a week.
“…uncertainty is often bad for an organization’s reputation.”
How can you get ahead of uncertainty?
The message is clear: the media abhors a vacuum. Regardless of whether you’re in full crisis mode, or simply getting ahead of a story, it’s important to communicate decisively.
That requires planning. Don’t wait for stories to get on top of you. Use horizon monitoring analysis tools like SourceCode Inflection to identify issues that might arise in the future so that you can wargame responses and have prepared lines ready to drop the moment they’re needed.
You should also identify which spokespeople are best placed to talk around an issue, and give them through media training so that if and when the time comes, they can communicate the agreed messaging clearly and with confidence. This training should be refreshed regularly to ensure that your spokespeople are always fully prepared to reassure key audiences and project control.
There are very rarely any true “black swan” events. Most are entirely predictable with enough analysis and research and can be prepared for. This preparation is key to avoiding uncertainty and maintaining your hard won reputation.
Get in touch if you would like to discuss how we can help you stay on top of emerging threats and make the most of potential opportunities.
“This preparation is key to avoiding uncertainty and maintaining your hard won reputation.”
When an organization stays quiet during an unresolved issue, the media and the market fill the silence with their own version of events. That guesswork is usually worse for the brand than an early, direct statement would have been.
SVB waited hours to brief analysts and investors after announcing it needed to raise capital, and when it did speak, the statement was jargon-heavy and gave little reassurance. Venture capital firms told portfolio companies to pull their funds before the bank could get ahead of the story.
Facebook’s leadership took five days to respond publicly after news broke that user data had been harvested without consent. In that gap the story ran unchecked and #DeleteFacebook trended worldwide.
Use horizon monitoring to spot issues before they break, prepare messaging in advance, and make sure spokespeople are media trained and refreshed regularly so they can respond with confidence the moment they’re needed.




